I think it would be fair to suggest that this week will be a testing one on many political and economic fronts!
As we move into the latter phases of lockdown, there is a nervousness around the fears of the virus re-emerging, not least in the US, where it has yet to be contained in many states. Coupled to this we have a few factors within financial markets which are causing concern; within the US there is the reporting of the monthly employment figures on Thursday and a short working week (July 4th), as well as the fact that Joe Biden is now clearly leading Donald Trump in the election polls; all of which, in turn, creates unrest in our home markets.
Talking of home markets, as we start to digest the implications of lifting elements of the furlough scheme and other forms of government assistance, it could mark a bleak time for many employees I fear, with meetings taking place in order to announce redundancy measures within firms. It was inevitable, but I think we are now arriving at the point where businesses can begin to assess the ramifications of lockdown on our economy and put in place their plans for a cautious return to working practices, in what will be a very changed marketplace for a while to come. Additional to this though, we still have the virus sitting on our shoulder which doesn’t help.
So to the reopening of pubs; whilst the the poor weather may keep people off the beaches, I expect this coming weekend will be like the fiesta season in Magaluf in some towns and cities, with Britain’s finest celebrating a battle we have yet to win. Some of those that are fortunate enough not to have felt the impact of the virus on friends and family still misjudge its seriousness and whilst the NHS may have the spare capacity to deal with admissions, they do not have a magic wand and I fear that many people assume that they do. Trust me, it’s better not to catch it at all than hope that medication and care will resolve it.
I have a feeling that we may hear some good news in terms of government direction this week, to try and address some of the uncertainty which exists right now and also to encourage the public in what will be a difficult time for many, as I have suggested above; we need direction, the markets need direction and so hopefully we will get some, watch this space!