Good morning everyone, I am currently away for a few days on, what we used to know as a holiday. We are walking in the Dales (weather permitting) and while it was great to see the local economy starting to reopen around Leyburn this weekend, the social-distancing Is very evident and, with cases rising in many areas, it is not surprising.
Unexpectedly (for me), it would seem that investment markets will start the week on a confident, positive note, due to the reopening of many businesses and the expectation of good news arriving in the Chancellor’s midweek speech, with the possible suspension of stamp duty, a reduction in VAT and further boosts to ailing sectors such as the hospitality industry.
If ever there was a pivotal time to introduce a further stimulus, this is it and with the concern of the virus rising again in many countries, including parts of the UK, i’s still a cagey time, although the reporting system change may be the reason for the additional cases being viewed here (they really have fudged the data haven’t they?….Although maybe it’s just as well or it would have been even more grim at its peak).
This week will also see the release of early figures for the construction sector and if they fall within certain parameters, whilst not great, they will be viewed positively by investment markets. Additional to this will be figures for Eurozone trading, so plenty going on and all expected to be encouraging it would seem.
I will temper the above with the reality of where we are though, indebted massively and with the virus still very much active and reaping havoc in places like the US. So it’s still knife edge stuff for many economies and a measured approach needs to be adopted to risk right now, in case expectations don’t match reality.
All in all though, a positive outlook for the week ahead, even if it looks like I am going to get rather wet out there!