Having watched the investment markets reacting to the latest sets of data globally during last week, most of which was largely as predicted, I thought that we would be starting the week on something of a positive note. I guessed wrong!
Whilst it looked like we would have seen shares move upwards today, having had a poor run during last week, the latest announcement regarding travel to Spain is something of a hammer blow, as it signals what we may expect in the months ahead; the potential for further stifling of business recovery here and in the EU, as families determine the extent to which their holiday is worth the financial sacrifice of being away from work for 2 weeks upon return.
We have been living with the underlying concern of a resurgence of the virus (with the first signs coming from those countries who have been ahead of us in all of this), but I have to say I am, to put it politely, perplexed by the Government’s approach with regard to the Spanish situation. It seems that whilst it is in order to travel throughout the UK and to visit virus hotspots such as Leicester, without needing to quarantine at all, if you travel to the South of Spain, to an area where there is no apparent resurgence in the virus, then you must quarantine for 2 weeks upon return to the UK. The virus will move as freely in the UK as it will in Spain, so why are different rules being applied? Perhaps we need a programme of testing for anyone who travels anywhere out of area maybe, surely that is better than a 2 week layoff and that should apply equally to within the UK as it does to Spain or any other country (unworkable I know, but hopefully you can see what I am suggesting here?).
Nobody wants to be exposed to the virus and the government has a difficult task to address but this latest move, I am sure, will be seen as a sledgehammer to crack a walnut and my worry is that investors and businesses will see this as a sign of things to come, which could set us right back. Yes, a holiday may not be an essential form of travel, but we have arguably larger exposure to the virus by continuing about our daily lives in the UK. What we need is a coherent policy and not one which appears to be made up on the hoof. This latest action is a worrying sign; for once they have acted promptly, but it is the way in which they have acted that is the issue I feel.
Anyway, enough of my personal rant, that is not the purpose of these blogs, however there is a wider underlying theme to this, which is that whilst we know how difficult and prolonged the recovery will be, businesses need to be involved in the process of decision-making in matters such as this, so that government can better balance and understand the consequences of their actions and businesses can avoid being thrown out with the bathwater each time. The investment markets will, I am sure, be viewing this latest development very closely and with perhaps a little concern.